Posted on April 18, 2013

1st quarter congressional campaign filings

By Andrew Long, Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting

The first campaign finance reports of 2013 have been filed with the Federal Election Commission. Arizona’s incumbents raised about $1.4 million in receipts for the first quarter of the year. Democrat Kyrsten Sinema led in contributions with $323,812, followed closely by Ann Kirkpatrick with $310,003. The Democratic duo also spent the most with $75,905 and $64,674 in expenditures. Republican Trent Franks raised the least with $38,025. Ed Pastor led the group in cash on hand with $1.35 million. David Schweikert led debts owed at $668,358.

Incumbant
District
Party
Contributions
Expenditures
Cash on hand
Debts owed
Barber, Ronald02DEM284613.946634.14327873.420
Franks, Trent08REP3802530726.942848300586.4
Gosar, Paul Anthony04REP568005403.1251188.2821138.16
Grijalva, Raul M03DEM70144.5429811.1349188.412452.12
Kirkpatrick, Ann01DEM310003.2875905.71244895.4324168.92
Pastor, Ed L07DEM8110044626.761354071.530
Salmon, Matt05REP89853.5437050.98139815.180
Schweikert, David06REP139866.5417641.1894163.36668358.38
Sinema, Kyrsten09DEM323812.7664674.61307061.420
Posted on April 7, 2013

Rejected ballots document continued problems in Arizona’s elections

By Brandon Quester, Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting

PHOENIX – Tens of thousands of ballots cast in Arizona’s 2012 election were rejected by elections officials, indicating continued communication and voter education problems in the state, according to an AZCIR analysis of rejected ballots and interviews with elections experts and legislators.

Nearly 46,000 of the more than 2.3 million ballots cast in Arizona’s 2012 election – or about 2 percent – were rejected. That rate is down from 2.2 percent in 2008, when Arizona led the nation in rejected provisional ballots.

SIDEBAR: Inside our analysis of Arizona’s rejected ballots

The rejected votes consist of early voting or provisional ballots in which voters went through the voting process but later had their ballots thrown out after review by elections officials. The most common reasons were that voters weren’t registered in time for the election, voted in the wrong precincts or didn’t sign their ballots. rbtease

Early votes and absentee ballots are cast when a voter is on the permanent early voting list or lives outside the state or country during election cycles. Provisional ballots are cast when voters are not listed on a jurisdiction’s voter roll or registration records, or if they received an early ballot.

Election experts say rejected ballot rates – and the reasons for rejection – can point to either poor voter education about Arizona’s election process or inefficiencies in the state’s election administration efforts.

“I know that [Arizona Secretary of State Ken Bennett] wants to identify areas that we can do better and will do better,” said Matt Roberts, spokesman for the Arizona Secretary of State’s office. “And that’s what rejected ballots can tell us.”

Of the 33,000 provisional ballots that were rejected in 2012, 38 percent were because the voter wasn’t registered in the state and 33 percent because the voter submitted a ballot in the wrong precinct.

rejected_table

Election officials said voters who weren’t registered might have missed the state’s registration cut-off date, which was 29 days before Election Day. Voters who register after that date are not eligible to vote in that election.

“If someone thinks that they’re registered and isn’t, then that could be an element of voter education that we need to improve,” Roberts said.

Arizona Sen. Steve Gallardo, D-Phoenix, agrees that voter education is an issue but thinks the 29-day cutoff for registration should be changed.

“Let’s get rid of that deadline and have same-day registration,” Gallardo said. “It’s ridiculous that such a large number of ballots are being rejected, and then a large number of people are having their rights taken away because they did not meet a 29-day cut off day.”

Voters who cast a ballot in the wrong precinct may have been confused by redistricting, in which 2010 Census data was used to redraw congressional and legislative voting districts in Arizona, election officials said. Redistricting shifted voting precinct boundaries and, in some places, reduced the number of precincts.

Roberts said this too comes back to voter education, adding that there “is a degree of responsibility that voters have to understand where their correct polling place is.”

Among the more than 12,000 rejected early voting ballots, which include voters on the permanent early voting list, 42 percent were rejected because the voter did not sign the ballot and 33 percent because the voter missed the submission deadline.

Election officials said missing signatures and late ballot submissions also indicate inadequate education.

While Roberts said the Arizona Secretary of State’s office spent nearly $600,000 in federal funds on voter education from the Help America Vote Act (HAVA), he said there are still areas where the state needs to better educate voters and election administrators.

The HAVA funding was used up in the last election cycle, Roberts said, and the Secretary of State’s office is working to include educational funding in the 2014 budget.

“The question we now have to be asking ourselves — and we have not asked ourselves — is what are we doing to make sure that we have funding there for voter education,” Gallardo said. “And I think that’s something that needs to be addressed.”

Election reform efforts stir debate among legislators, voting rights advocates

The Arizona legislature has introduced dozens of election-related bills this session in an effort to update, and in some cases reform, the state’s election system. Proponents of the two most controversial bills, which seek to clean up the permanent early voting list and limit who and what organizations can collect and submit early voting ballots, say the bills will increase efficiency and maintain the integrity of early ballots.

Opponents say the bills will disenfranchise voters by making it more difficult to vote and limiting efforts by advocacy groups to collect and submit early ballots.

Both sides agree on one point: The number of rejected ballots, combined with the reasons for rejection, document a disconnect between voters and election administrators.

Senate Bill 1261, sponsored by Arizona Sen. Michele Reagan, R-Scottsdale, proposes to clean up the state’s permanent early voting list (PEVL) by removing voters who do not vote in four consecutive federal elections.

Arizona attracted national attention last November with its high volume of provisional ballots, many of which were still being counted two weeks after the election. Voters on the early voting list who show up to vote in person instead must cast provisional ballots at the polls.

SB 1261 seeks to address why there were so many provisional ballots, why so many people on the PEVL didn’t know they were on the list, and getting those people off the list so they can vote the way they want to, Reagan said.

If SB 1261 passes, election administrators would send a notice to PEVL voters who did not vote in a primary or general election for two consecutive federal election cycles, asking them if they want to stay on the list. If a voter doesn’t respond within 30 days, he or she would be removed from the PEVL but remain a registered voter. The bill would be retroactive to include federal elections in 2010 and 2012.

Reagan has support from county recorders, the Secretary of State’s office and fellow Republican legislators, who think the bill will make the early voting system more efficient. But Latino advocacy groups and some Democratic legislators see the bill as an attack on voters by making it more difficult to vote.

“I don’t think that was her intent to try to suppress voters or put obstacles in peoples’ way of voting, but I think her bills have the unintended consequences of doing that,” said Gallardo. “There are so many bills that at the end of the day, if you look at them, they all make it more difficult for people to participate. It’s an attack. This is a war on voters.”

Reducing the number of voters on the PEVL who haven’t used the system would reduce administrative costs, said Maricopa County Assistant Director of Elections Rey Valenzuela.

Maricopa County, for example, has more than 20,000 voters who didn’t vote in the last four federal elections, he said. By removing them from the PEVL, the county would save $2.12 per voter – or more than $42,000 – by not having to send the mail-in forms.

Advocacy groups like Mi Familia Vota, which registered thousands of first-time voters in Arizona, argue that the focus of legislation should instead be placed on helping people vote.

“We believe the legislature and the counties need to invest more resources into educating the voter,” said Raquel Terán, Arizona director for Mi Familia Vota. “Purging the permanent early voting list, how does that really help the participation? It doesn’t. It’s just making it easier for the administration, not the voter.”

Senate Bill 1003 contains provisions that would prohibit paid or volunteer political committee workers from submitting early ballots on behalf of voters. If passed, violations of this provision would result in a class-six felony. Arizona Sen. Michele Reagan also sponsored this bill.

The Arizona Secretary of State’s office said the early ballot system was created so people could submit ballots through the U.S. Postal Service. Spokesman Matt Roberts called it the “most secure” way to submit early votes.

“Elections personnel want these live ballots secure,” Roberts said. “We don’t want anybody touching those ballots except elections people.”

Daria Ovide, a Phoenix-based voting rights advocate and communications director for Central Arizonans for a Sustainable Economy, said this bill would limit voting options for groups of voters, particularly Hispanics, who rely on organizations to help collect and submit ballots.

Ovide helped register more than 34,000 new voters in Maricopa County while working with Adiós Arpaio, a group comprised of the Campaign for Arizona’s Future Political Action Committee and the Promise Arizona in Action Political Committee.

Ovide said many of the voters her organization helped to register rely on advocacy groups to not only help them understand the voting process, but also to gather and submit ballots to elections officials.

“If we go away, that’s a significant loss,” Ovide said. “The reality is that we have not had an actual conversation about what was the problem in the election and what we’re going to do to fix it.”

Arizona’s election performance low compared to other states

Arizona was listed in the bottom third of all U.S. states for election performance in 2008, according to the Elections Performance Index released in February by Pew Charitable Trusts.

The index gauges the efficiency of state-level election administration based on a series of indicators, including the rate of provisional and early voting ballots cast, rejection rates and voter turnout, among others.

When compared to the rest of the nation, Arizona in 2008 had the highest number of provisional ballots cast and the highest rejection rate of such ballots as compared to total ballots cast. Nationwide data is not yet available to compare the 2012 statistics.

Arizonans submitted in 2012 more than 183,000 provisional ballots, or about 8 percent of all ballots cast. That’s up from 6.5 percent in 2008 and represents the highest number of provisional ballots ever cast here for a federal election.

High numbers of provisional ballots can in part be explained, according to election experts, by advocacy groups registering large numbers of first-time voters, many of whom signed up for the permanent early voting list, but later showed up at polling locations. Because these voters were on the PEVL, they were required to cast a provisional ballot.

The provisional ballot rejection rate among all ballots cast here was 1.4 percent in 2012, or more than 33,000 provisional ballots rejected last year. That’s down from 1.9 percent in 2008.

Thirty-three thousand rejected provisional ballots “is not a small number,” said Sean Greene, election initiatives research manager at Pew Charitable Trusts.

“We don’t really know what’s good or what’s not, honestly,” Greene said. “All we do know is that there are states that tend to be at the top of that, and Arizona is one of them.”

Tammy Patrick, federal compliance officer for the Maricopa County Elections Department, said Pew’s Elections Performance Index shows that states in the Western United States tend to have higher rejection rates because people have more options on how to vote.

But, she said, that doesn’t make high rates of rejected ballots acceptable.

“I don’t think that any rejection rate is acceptable by the public, by the voters or by election administrators,” Patrick said.

Rejection rates for counties vary by type of ballots cast, reasons for rejection

Maricopa County, which included 60 percent of all ballots cast in Arizona’s 2012 election, had lower rates of rejected ballots when compared to 2008.

Patrick and Assistant Deputy Elections Director Rey Valenzuela point to an information campaign to educate voters on new precinct boundaries from redistricting. Valenzuela said the county mailed more than 2 million notices to voters about new precincts and polling locations.

“We were expecting a low rejection rate just because of that mass mailing,” he said. The county’s provisional ballot rejection rate, as a percent of total ballots cast, decreased from 2.1 percent in 2008 to 1.6 percent in 2012.

Apache, Navajo and Coconino Counties experienced the highest rate of rejected provisional ballots in the state. The rejection rates were 2.7 for Apache County and 2.3 percent for Navajo and Coconino Counties. The most common reasons for rejection were because voters weren’t registered or voted in the wrong precinct.

Geneva L. Honea, voter registration supervisor in Apache County, says confusion among the large population of “snowbirds” – residents who live in her county for part of the year – helped raise its high rejection rate for provisional ballots.

“A lot of voters don’t know that ballots are unforwardable, or that any election form is unforwardable,” Honea said.

The county also has a high number of voters from the Navajo Nation, she said, which holds tribal elections on the same day as U.S. federal elections.

Voting places for tribal elections are different from the voter’s federal election polling place, officials said. For tribal elections, voters are required to vote where their umbilical cord was buried. This could be at any one of the 110 Chapters, or tribal polling places, across the Navajo Nation. In federal elections, those same voters are required to vote at polling locations based on their home address.

“We have our outreach worker out there trying to let them know this but there’s still a lot of people that don’t get it,” Honea said. “ They don’t realize that (the federal ballot) has to go to the location of your home.”

Navajo and Coconino counties also have high numbers of Navajo Nation residents and confusion among voters about where to cast a ballot, election officials said.

“That’s the biggest problem we have,” said Edison J. Wauneka, executive director of the Navajo Election Administration. “We need to educate our people traditionally – and what the process is as far as counties and states are concerned. We just really need to coordinate our efforts to do more with (the counties).”

Laurie Justman, Navajo County recorder, said despite education efforts throughout the county, registration issues are a big part of rejected provisional ballots there.

“A lot of the people that live on the Navajo reservation think that if they’re registered for the tribal election that they are registered for the federal election as well,” Justman said. “It’s two separate registrations.”

In Yuma County, however, rejected ballots are more common among early votes, which accounted for 73 percent of all ballots cast there in 2012. The rejection rate of these ballots was a little more than 2 percent, the highest rejection rate among early ballots in the state.

Yuma County election officials say they are aware of the high rejection rate and are working on a campaign to address it.

“I think they are individual issues and I definitely feel like we have to do the outreach and do the education so we can tackle some of the challenges,” said Yuma County Recorder Robyn Stallworth Pouquette. “I think across the board our county has some pretty aggressive goals in reaching out to voters so they know what the process is and what’s required.”

With more than half of its electorate using early voting instead of in-person polling sites, Yuma County changed from precinct polling locations to “vote centers” in 2012. Voters from any precinct can vote at any one of the county’s 11 vote centers, regardless of their precinct boundaries.

Yavapai County also has high numbers of early voters, about 72 percent, and uses vote centers. But Yavapai County’s rejection rate of early ballots, as a percentage of all ballots cast, was just 0.5 percent.

Sue Reynolds, Yuma County elections director, believes the high rejection rates are largely due to voter education, and the fact that third-party groups signed voters up for the PEVL without explaining exactly what that means. She said large numbers of those voters later showed up to vote in person.

“They don’t really understand what they’re signing up for,” Reynolds said.

Educating voters, election officials key to improving Arizona’s elections

At a state level, election officials agree that better education will help address high rates of rejected ballots. But how that argument is framed – and where the education occurs – is a matter of perspective.

“There’s a lot of education that goes into voting, but at the end of the day, people have to want to be a part of the system,” Arizona Sen. Michele Reagan said. “You can only do so much and so we identified what were the biggest problems that we wanted to fix and these (bills) are the ideas that came forward.”

Voter rights advocate Daria Ovide thinks the argument needs to be framed differently.

“There’s certain underlying assumptions that I think may be incorrect,” Ovide said. “That the large number of provisional ballots and large numbers of confused PEVL voters are for reasons that are the voter’s fault. In cases where the system breaks down, where do you presume the error has occurred?”

“We’ve identified that voter education certainly is something that we’re going to re-emphasize in the next election cycle,” said Matt Roberts, the Arizona Secretary of State spokesman. He said his office expects rejection rates to decrease in 2014.

“There’s no exact answer that’s going to solve all of it,” said Maricopa County’s Tammy Patrick. “But if we can try and make sure that whatever changes we are seeking to make, that they address the problem at hand, and that they’re not going to create more problems.”

Posted on April 7, 2013

Inside our analysis of Arizona’s rejected ballots

By Brandon Quester, Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting

Our commitment to accountability journalism continues today with an analysis of rejected ballots from last year’s presidential election. We compared the number and rate of rejected ballots from 2012 to previous federal election cycles in our state. While rejected ballots help to document continued problems in Arizona’s election system, we also analyzed current legislation to see if our state legislators are proposing bills that will address the problems at hand.

How we did the analysis

AZCIR collected county-level rejected ballot data from federal elections in 2008, 2010 and 2012. Each county is required to collect and submit to the Arizona Secretary of State summary data on the type of ballots cast, rejected and the reasons for rejection. This information is compiled by the Secretary of State’s office and then submitted to the U.S. Elections Assistance Commission, which was created in 2002 by the Help America Vote Act to monitor nationwide election performance.rbtease

AZCIR then analyzed the data by calculating ballot rejection rates, or the total number of rejected ballots divided by the total number of ballots cast. This percentage calculation was done for total rejected ballots, by county, and by type of ballot cast. We then compared rates from each election cycle.

We used rates of rejection instead of the difference of raw numbers because Arizona’s electorate is disparate in the number of ballots cast in each county. For example, Maricopa County accounted for roughly 60 percent of all ballots cast. By using rates of rejection, AZCIR was able to compare counties’ raw numbers as a percent of total ballots cast in each county.

Still, comparing 2010 data to 2012 isn’t entirely fair. The 2010 election cycle was an off-year election, which included candidates for Arizona’s governor and Congress. It wasn’t a presidential election. These off-year election cycles tend to have lower voter turnout, which makes it difficult to compare with presidential elections.

DATA: CSV | SORTABLE TABLE

While the 2010 data still documented the same issues we raise in our story, a comparison between presidential elections in 2008 and 2012 was a more accurate and relevant analysis.

Why didn’t the analysis include a demographic breakdown of each county?

Simply put, it’s not fair to correlate county-level summary data to demographic breakdowns from the 2010 Census. That type of analysis can’t determine if specific demographic groups cast the ballots we analyzed. The information exists, but the counties weren’t willing to – or couldn’t because of technology limitations – share that information.

In fact, AZCIR spent nearly two months trying to collect precinct-level rejected ballot data, which would have allowed us to do a fair comparison with demographic information from the 2010 Census.

AZCIR sent public records requests to almost half of Arizona’s 15 counties but did not receive precinct-level rejected ballot data. Some counties collect the data to monitor elections and provided the information without an official records request. Others don’t or can’t collect precinct-level data for rejected ballots.

Because counties aren’t required to gather that information and the technology used to gather it won’t allow elections officials to run a report detailing said data, according to county recorders, most counties could not fulfill the public records request.

The lack of consistent data collection between counties also hindered our joint analysis with the Arizona Capitol Times for our Mapping the Vote project. A commentary by Brandon Quester of AZCIR and Evan Wyloge of the Arizona Capitol Times discussed those issues. The commentary is relevant for AZCIR’s analysis of rejected ballots, too.

What’s the benefit of summary-level rejected ballot data?

Summary-level rejected ballot data can document at a county level where there is a disconnect between voters and election administrators. Sure, precinct-level data could detail specific areas by precinct, but summary data still provides an overall indication of election performance.

Rejected ballots are absentee, early voting or provisional ballots in which an individual went through the voting process but later had his or her ballot thrown out after review by elections officials.

These ballots can be thrown out because of reasons like a voter not being registered in time for the election to voting in the wrong precinct to not signing the ballot.

The reasons for rejection highlight education shortfalls between voters who don’t know the rules and regulations about voting or election administrators who haven’t done a good enough job educating voters.

But how these numbers relate to the rest of the nation also is important. Unfortunately, nationwide data has only recently been collected and analyzed for comparison. The Elections Performance Index, created by Pew Charitable Trusts and released in February, is the first-of-its-kind analysis that compares states on a series of indicators like the number of absentee and provisional ballots cast and rejection rates among each type of ballot, among others.

Nationwide data for the 2012 election is not yet available. AZCIR was instead able to use Arizona’s 2012 election data and compare that to previous elections here. That comparison, combined with Pew’s Election Performance Index that compared all U.S. states in 2008 and 2010, provided context for Arizona’s 2012 statistics.

Posted on April 7, 2013

Table: Arizona Rejected Ballots

County
Rejected total 2008
Rejected total 2012
Net change
Percent ballots 2008
Percent ballots 2012
Net change
Percent of provisional ballots 2008
Percent of provisional ballots 2012
Net change
Percent of absentee/early ballots 2008
Percent of absentee/early ballots 2012
Net change
Apache824869453.313.3106039-212.732.750.02
Cochise731375-3561.480.76-0.722914-151.280.2-1.08
Coconino138715061192.532.880.352523-20.380.730.35
Gila384282-1021.691.29-0.43020-100.250.11-0.14
Graham27054-2162.220.45-1.77258-172.660.06-2.6
Greenlee3810-281.280.33-0.95367-290.210.05-0.16
La Paz15375-782.71.29-1.41289-193.821.24-2.58
Maricopa3350431413-20912.432.26-0.173019-110.520.880.36
Mohave1068620-4481.550.87-0.682914-150.160.180.02
Navajo1098974-1243.022.58-0.444135-62.350.82-1.53
Pima64785740-7381.631.49-0.142515-100.180.630.45
Pinal27501296-14542.591.18-1.413916-231.830.1-1.73
Santa Cruz275203-722.031.44-0.592318-52.680.48-2.2
Yavapai1441984-4571.430.97-0.463113-180.440.630.19
Yuma10741101272.432.590.16248-161.422.921.5
Posted on February 24, 2013

Mapping the Vote

“Mapping the Vote” is a project of the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting, in coordination with the Arizona Capitol Times, that analyzed more than 2.3 million votes cast in Arizona’s 2012 General Election.

The project was the result of a unique partnership in which AZCIR and the Capitol Times collected, cleaned and analyzed voting data from key races in Arizona. Using statistical analysis to explain patterns, trends and possible correlations, we then merged this information with block-level Census data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Arizona Capitol Times journalists furthered the analysis with in-depth interviews with political party stakeholders and experts to report the results.

We paired how people voted at polling locations, with absentee and provisional ballots, at a precinct-level, with demographic breakdowns from the 2010 Census to better understand the election outcome.

To date, the series includes eight stories and is combined with interactive maps that allow readers to sift through the data on their own. The data explained interesting trends not only in how Arizona voted, but also some stand-out precincts among the more than 1,600 that span our state.

Here are some of our key findings:

Colorado City:
Strange voting patterns emerged from a precinct in Colorado City, Ariz., where data from a polygamist community explained how hundreds of ballots were nearly identical from the top of the ticket down. Those races showed a near-100 percent vote tally for winners. That same data shows that, in-step with the high vote percent for winning candidates, races such as the ticket for U.S. President, for the Arizona Senate, Mohave County Attorney and sheriff, among others, had no votes at all. This was entirely unique in the state.

1st Congressional District:
Despite a Republican-leaning congressional district, Democratic candidate Ann Kirkpatrick outperformed her Republican opponent, Jonathan Paton. The analysis reveals how Kirkpatrick did well in key areas while Paton did not match voters who cast ballots for the Republican presidential candidate.

2nd Congressional District:
Democratic congressional candidate Ron Barber outperformed his Republican counterpart, Martha McSally, in Tucson’s most competitive precincts, which lead to his thin victory. This win was in part because Barber performed about three percent better than voter registration numbers at the time of the election. In addition, nearly 4,000 voters split their ballots – meaning they voted for the Republican choice for president but voted Democratic for Congress.

9th Congressional District:
The new 9th Congressional District was redrawn to, according to performance models, have near-even odds for Republican and Democratic candidates. But Democratic candidate Kyrsten Sinema took all but one precinct where registration numbers between Republican and Democratic registration were within five percentage points.

Proposition 121:
Opposition to Proposition 121, which would have sent the top two candidates, according to votes, to the general election regardless of party affiliation, was highest among registered Republicans. Democrats, the data explained, largely opposed the measure. Support for the proposition was strongest with those unaffiliated with either political party.

Proposition 204:
Data showed that Proposition 204, which was designed to put increased funding into Arizona schools through a penny sales tax, was strongly opposed by Republicans and in general saw greater enthusiasm for voting on the measure.

Single-shot Candidates:
In Arizona’s House of Representatives, a tactic known as the “single-shot,” where political parties run one candidate instead of two for both available seats in each district, the result can sometimes mean a win instead of two losses. The analysis explains how candidates in Legislative Districts 28 and 9 did just that.

U.S. Senate:
The U.S. Senate race was close, showing over-performances by each candidate. Even though Democratic candidate Richard Carmona lost the race, data explains how he could be a viable candidate in the future. In fact, Carmona had the strongest showing by any Arizona Democrat since 1988.

Posted on February 23, 2013

Sales tax hike was squashed by enthusiastic opposition among GOP

Mapping the Vote is a collaboration between the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting and the Arizona Capitol Times. The project included a precinct-level analysis of Arizona election data. Unless otherwise noted, you can republish these stories for free if you follow these rules.

By Evan Wyloge, Arizona Capitol Times

Proposition 204 promised to put increased funding into schools across the state by permanently extending a temporary 1-cent sales tax that dedicated the revenue to education.

But strong support for the tax when voters approved it in 2010 fractured in 2012, revealing a partisan divide.

Precinct-level vote analysis done jointly by the Arizona Capitol Times and the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting suggests that Prop. 204 was supported by Democrats and opposed by Republicans. But opposition among Republicans was significantly more enthusiastic than support among Democrats.

Where Democratic registration was stronger, so was the vote for Prop. 204. The opposition vote was stronger in Republican-saturated precincts.

Meanwhile, Republicans were more likely to vote on the measure than were Democrats. Where Republican registration was stronger, the drop-off rate between voting for the top-of-the-ticket race (the presidential candidates) and voting for Prop. 204 decreased. The outcome in Democratic-leaning areas was the opposite, meaning that highly Republican areas were more likely to weigh in on the issue.

That stronger Republican enthusiasm, coupled with the stronger likelihood that Republican areas would oppose the measure, spelled doom for the proposition.

The partisan composition of a precinct (vertical axis) – red for Republican percentage and blue for Democratic percentage – correlated to the vote percentage for Proposition 204 (horizontal axis) for the precinct.

Ann Eve Pedersen, chairwoman of the Prop. 204 campaign committee, said the strength of the Republican opposition doesn’t come as a surprise, but that it reflects how Republicans framed what she called a “miscommunication” campaign.

“Before there was an opposition campaign, we saw widespread support, across the board, with Republicans, Democrats and independents,” Pedersen said.

Once an opposition campaign coalesced, Pedersen said she saw Republicans mischaracterizing what the proposition would do and using it as a way to drive Republican turnout more generally.

Pedersen said that ballot propositions often are used to drive turnout by putting controversial social-issue propositions on the ballot that politicians know will motivate certain voters.

Since there was no such proposition on the ballot in Arizona this year, Pedersen said, Republicans latched onto this ballot measure because it was the most fitting one to lure Republican voters to the polls.

“I don’t have evidence that happened, but that’s what I suspect and these numbers bear that out,” Pedersen said. “They said money from this would be used for abortions. That was absolutely untrue, but they knew it would resonate with certain voters.”

Opponents of the measure could not be reached for comment on Pedersen’s views.

State Treasurer Doug Ducey, who led the opposition campaign to Prop. 204, said Pedersen’s theory is not backed by reality, and that he urged Arizonans to vote against the measure because the bill was a “special interest payout” that was simply a bad idea.

Ducey also said he thinks it was not a partisan bill at all.

“Voters saw this for what it was: A bad idea,” Ducey said. “There’s nothing beyond the fact that it lost two-to-one.”

Posted on February 23, 2013

CD1 results reflect Kirkpatrick’s appeal, Paton’s weakness among Romney voters

Mapping the Vote is a collaboration between the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting and the Arizona Capitol Times. The project included a precinct-level analysis of Arizona election data. Unless otherwise noted, you can republish these stories for free if you follow these rules.

By Evan Wyloge, Arizona Capitol Times

Precinct-level election results in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District suggest Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick’s return to Congress can be attributed to her connection to many key areas and to Republican Jonathan Paton’s lackluster ability to attract voters who supported the top-of-the-ticket Republican.

Explore the CD1 election map

A joint analysis by the Arizona Capitol Times and the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting shows that Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney beat Democrat Barack Obama by more than 20,000 votes in CD1.  But Kirkpatrick earned a greater number of votes than Obama in almost half of the precincts in the district, a trend particularly strong in Republican-leaning areas. In those same areas, Paton got far fewer votes than Romney and generally underperformed when compared to the partisan registration.

In 162 of the district’s 339 voting precincts, Kirkpatrick got more votes than Obama. Paton on the other hand, got more votes than Romney in just 25 precincts.

Carmen Gallus, Kirkpatrick’s campaign manager, attributes those figures to the longtime connection Kirkpatrick has with key areas.

When Kirkpatrick served in the state Legislature, she represented a district that included all of the Navajo, Hopi and Hualapai Indian reservations as well as Flagstaff, all areas where Kirkpatrick resoundingly won.

She also outperformed the strong two-way partisan registration advantage held by Republicans in the White Mountain area. Gallus said that can largely be chalked up to her having grown up in that area.

And in the Sedona and Camp Verde areas, which lean Republican, Kirkpatrick also either won or did much better than the partisan registration figures would suggest. That is likely a reflection of her work as the Sedona city attorney and her introduction of a bill that would designate that area as a National Scenic Area, when she served in Congress between 2009 and 2011.

Former U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick and former Arizona state Sen. Jonathan Paton have raised the bulk of the money for their campaigns from outside the sprawling, new 1st Congressional District.

Arizona Capitol Times

Former U.S. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick and former Arizona state Sen. Jonathan Paton have raised the bulk of the money for their campaigns from outside the sprawling, new 1st Congressional District.

Even in the foothills north of Tucson in Pima County, largely considered a Republican stronghold, Kirkpatrick did significantly better than the registration numbers would predict.

Kurt Davis, a consultant at First Strategic Communication & Public Affairs, said the most important part of Kirkpatrick’s performance was in the northern Pima County area. Republican women in that area, Davis said, can be won over by a Democratic candidate, particularly by a female candidate.

Davis said the almost exclusively negative television advertising on both sides may have tipped the scales in favor of Kirkpatrick in that area, and that going negative toward a female candidate can backfire there.

Kirkpatrick won the race with 48.7 percent of the vote, compared to 45.1 percent for Paton, a margin of slightly more than 9,000 votes.

Paton described to the Capitol Times a number of factors that worked against him during the campaign, leading to his ultimate loss.

First, Paton said the early money advantage Kirkpatrick had, coupled with the early launch of her campaign — starting early in 2011 — allowed Kirkpatrick to frame the entire race in her favor. By the fall of 2011, Kirkpatrick already had an advertisement campaign running.

Second, Paton said the Libertarian candidate in the CD1 race may have truly been a spoiler for his chances.

Robert Mayer, Paton’s former deputy campaign manager, pointed out that Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate for president, earned only 1.4 percent of the Arizona vote. Marc Victor, the Libertarian running for U.S. Senate, got 4.5 percent of the Arizona vote. But Kim Allen, the Libertarian running in CD1, got 6 percent.

Mayer said that because Libertarian candidates almost exclusively draw votes away from Republican candidates, an increasing Libertarian vote down the ticket says something important about Republican voters in CD1. Where there may have been antipathy toward Barack Obama among Republicans, leading to broad support for Romney, the dynamics may have been different in the race for a House seat.  So the strongly negative advertising by Paton and Kirkpatrick may have caused Republican-leaning voters to cast ballots reflecting a distaste for both candidates, favoring the third-party candidate.

Had Paton won just two-thirds of Allen’s vote, giving Allen something closer to 2 percent of the overall vote, Paton would have won the race.

Mayer said ensuring that a Libertarian candidate enters the race may be one key to a successful Democratic campaign in the district.

Paton and Mayer even suggested that Allen may have been encouraged to run to spoil the Republican chances in CD1. And they cited Allen’s self-professed support of Obama’s health care reform law as evidence that Allen was not a true Libertarian.

Allen told the Capitol Times that he was never approached by anyone to run in the race. And Allen said that a more precise portrayal of his stance toward the health care reform is that he wouldn’t have voted for it, but that he does not support repealing it. Rather, he supports making changes to it and eventually moving toward a single-payer system.

Allen said that while he may not always align with the Libertarian position, he has long considered himself most closely aligned with the Libertarian Party. He said he plans to run again in 2014.

As for the future of the district, the National Republican Congressional Committee has already set its sights on CD1.

Daniel Scarpinato, a spokesman for the NRCC, said only seven congressional districts in the United States gave a majority of their vote to Romney but also elected a Democrat to Congress. Those districts, such as CD1 and CD2 in Arizona, will be priority races in 2014.

Davis, the consultant, said the district’s varied demographics mean that a representative’s voting record is what’s most important, and that Kirkpatrick will need to depart from the Democratic Party’s stance on some specific issues in order to keep her edge in CD1.

The large rural contingency of CD1 values gun rights, so new gun control measures being pushed by Obama and Democrats in Congress could be problematic for Kirkpatrick.

Posted on February 23, 2013

Analysis reveals Sinema’s secrets to success in CD9

Mapping the Vote is a collaboration between the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting and the Arizona Capitol Times. The project included a precinct-level analysis of Arizona election data. Unless otherwise noted, you can republish these stories for free if you follow these rules.

By Evan Wyloge, Arizona Capitol Times

U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-AZ09 (Photo by Ryan Cook, RJ Cook Photography)

U.S. Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, D-AZ09 (Photo by Ryan Cook, RJ Cook Photography)

When Arizona’s Independent Redistricting Commission finished redrawing the state’s political districts, it quickly became clear that none would be as watched as the new 9th Congressional District.

Explore the CD9 election map

Its partisan breakdown and performance models foreshadowed practically even odds for Republican or Democratic candidates.

And yet, while Democratic candidates were able to capture all three of the state’s competitive congressional districts in 2012, none won by as large a margin as Kyrsten Sinema did in CD9, defeating Republican Vernon Parker.

A joint analysis by the Arizona Capitol Times and the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting shows that Sinema won by sweeping the most competitive parts of CD9 and doing slightly better in the most Democratic-leaning precincts than her Republican opponent did in the most Republican-leaning ones.

In precincts where Democratic and Republican registration numbers were within 5 percentage points, Sinema won all but one.

And in the precincts she won, Sinema took an average 58 percent of the vote. Parker earned only an average of 55 percent in the precincts he won.

DJ Quinlan, interim executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party, said Sinema’s victory demonstrates how well her team put two key campaign strategies into action.

First, Sinema mobilized her partisan base. In areas like central Phoenix, central Tempe and central Mesa, her margin of victory outpaced the already strong Democratic registration advantage.

But in a competitive district such as CD9, the more evenly pitted areas also became essential to winning the election. And in competitive areas such as south Scottsdale, south Tempe, Chandler, west Mesa, north Phoenix and parts of Ahwatukee, Sinema came out on top.

Those results can be attributed to Sinema’s campaigning efforts as well as the political environment she ran in.

Rodd McLeod, Sinema’s campaign manager, said their research showed that Democratic-leaning areas of the district were already primed for a high turnout because of enthusiasm for President Barak Obama. That allowed her campaign to focus more resources on going after independent voters, McLeod said.

And those “persuasion” voters, McLeod said, were receptive to Sinema’s record as a lawmaker. They highlighted bills she worked on that helped veterans and working mothers and it paid off, he said.

Her campaign also hit Parker hard on statements he had made about defunding Planned Parenthood and underscored his work in President George W. Bush’s administration, which McLeod said soured those independent voters.

But Parker’s campaign faced an uphill battle, his campaign manager Brian Murray said.

Among independent women, Sinema came out of the gate with a 4-to-1 advantage, according to polling they did during the campaign.

And Murray suggested that there may have been a racial component to Parker’s loss as well. Surveys done by Parker’s campaign showed that when his biography was tested with voters, noting he is African American resulted in a 7-point drop in favorability.

“It is what it is,” Murray said. “That’s outside a statistical anomaly.”

Murray said he thinks pro-Sinema groups capitalized on Parker’s race, rehashing an allegation made previously that a photo of Parker on an anti-Parker mailer sent by the Arizona Democratic Party had been manipulated to darken his skin. The Arizona Democratic Party denied the charge, however, and the Sinema campaign has pointed out that they had nothing to do with that mailer.

Murray said he thinks the 2014 election will provide a much different setting and that Sinema will not have as easy a path to victory without a Democratic base that’s enthusiastic about a presidential candidate. And the typically lower turnout among independent voters in non-presidential years will leave Sinema with a more challenging electorate, he said.

The 2014 election, Murray said, will be the real determining factor in whether the seat will be a tossup throughout the district’s 10-year lifespan. If Sinema is re-elected, Murray said he thinks she will enjoy a true incumbent’s advantage for future elections. If voters elect a Republican in 2014, Murray said, the seat will be more likely to change hands over and over.

Posted on February 23, 2013

Vote analysis shows why Flake-Carmona race was so close

Mapping the Vote is a collaboration between the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting and the Arizona Capitol Times. The project included a precinct-level analysis of Arizona election data. Unless otherwise noted, you can republish these stories for free if you follow these rules.

By Jeremy Duda, Arizona Capitol Times

U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake (left) and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona square off at their first debate Wednesday. (Photo by Evan Wyloge/Arizona Capitol Times)

U.S. Rep. Jeff Flake (left) and former Surgeon General Richard Carmona square off at their first debate Wednesday. (Photo by Evan Wyloge/Arizona Capitol Times)

Though he lost the U.S. Senate race to Jeff Flake, Richard Carmona won nearly all of the state’s most competitive voting precincts and performed better than most Democrats could hope to in conservative parts of Arizona.

Explore the U.S. Senate race map

With the former U.S. surgeon general now considering a run for governor, the results of the state’s blockbuster Senate race may give new hope to Democrats looking to retake the Ninth Floor in 2014.

According to a joint analysis of the race by the Arizona Capitol Times and the Arizona Center for Investigative Reporting, Carmona over-performed in several Republican-leaning areas in greater Phoenix, his home base of Tucson and even rural areas such as Prescott. That over-performance helped keep the race close. His 3-point loss was the strongest showing by an Arizona Democrat in a U.S. Senate race since 1988.

Carmona defeated Flake, a six-term East Valley congressman, in competitive-but-Republican-leaning precincts across the state. In the Ahwatukee-based Windmere precinct, where Republicans have an 9-point registration edge over Democrats, Carmona beat Flake by more than six percentage points, based on 2-way registration figures and head-to-head performance. In south Scottsdale’s Pueblo precinct, which has a 4.6 percent GOP registration edge, Carmona won more than 54 percent of the vote.

He out-performed Democratic congressional candidates in districts the party won. For example, Carmona fared better in the

2nd Congressional District than Congressman Ron Barber, who had a surprisingly close race, and in the 9th Congressional District, which elected Kyrsten Sinema to Congress.

Even in the conservative bastion of Prescott, Carmona fared well. In the Prescott South precinct, where the GOP holds a 9-point edge in voter registration, Carmona took 54 percent of the vote to Flake’s 45 percent.

And in heavily conservative areas where Flake won overwhelmingly, Carmona still managed to take a greater-than-usual share of the vote. Carmona out-performed the partisan split in areas such as Fountain Hills, Surprise, and even in Flake’s home-base in the conservative East Valley.

The analysis is based on precinct-by-precinct, head-to-head comparisons between the Democratic and Republican candidates, excluding third-party or independent candidates. The partisan breakdown of Arizona’s voting precincts similarly excludes third-party and non-party affiliated voters, which proves to be a strong indicator of the overall partisan leaning for any given area.

An over- or under-performance represents how the head-to-head matchup compares with the registration proportion for Democrats and Republicans. The results of the Carmona-Flake matchup do not include Libertarian candidate Marc Victor and write-in candidates.

Flake still won the race and outperformed Carmona in other areas. In the Ajo area, for example, Carmona won by double digits, but Flake took a far greater share of the vote than the GOP’s voter registration numbers would indicate. And in the 1st Congressional District, which sent Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick back to Congress, Flake received more votes than Carmona.

Nonetheless, some, such as former Carmona campaign manager Alexis Tameron, view the results as a good sign if Carmona throws his hat in the gubernatorial ring for 2014. Tameron noted that Carmona’s 1,036,542 votes were more than any Democratic candidate has ever received in Arizona.

“We didn’t get to the magic number, but we certainly moved the needle. And I think that’s why … he hasn’t taken the option off the board at looking at running in the future,” Tameron said.

Carmona outperformed President Barack Obama, while Flake fell nearly 130,000 votes short of Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney. Tameron said about 3 percent of voters cast a ballot for president but do not vote in any down-ballot races.

Tameron said the Carmona campaign targeted areas that lean conservative, holding about 35 town hall-style voter outreach events in places like Chandler, Scottsdale, Queen Creek and Prescott. The campaign also targeted areas in competitive legislative districts, such as the Ahwatukee-based Legislative District 18.

“We knew it was going to be a race on the margins even though it was a presidential year — that if we had the opportunity to close the gap at certain places and be competitive in some population centers, it was about then keeping competitive in places where we knew we were not going to win outright. But it was a game of margins,” she said.

And of course, Tameron said, the campaign for the man who hoped to be Arizona’s first Latino senator targeted areas with heavy Hispanic populations, especially areas that had seen a lot of Hispanic growth in recent years.

Indeed, Carmona did very well in heavily Democratic areas, outperforming the partisan split with Republicans in solidly blue precincts with large Hispanic voting age populations. Tameron said she expects to find a correlation between Carmona’s over-performance and large Hispanic populations.

Pollster Michael O’Neil, president and CEO of the firm O’Neil Associates, said Carmona’s strength in Democratic areas was more significant than the votes he pulled in competitive and Republican precincts.

“He started out in the friendly areas and really cranked out the vote there,” O’Neil said. “I’m guessing it’s more about turnout than it is about persuading people.”

DJ Quinlan, a Democratic campaign operative and the acting executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party, said there was a lot of excitement among Latino voters, which contributed to extra votes for Carmona in conservative areas such as Mesa.

But the Carmona campaign worked hard to target independents and “certain types of Republicans,” particularly those with high levels of education and Republican women, a demographic where Quinlan said Carmona over-performed due to GOP policies on issues like abortion and contraception.

“I think there was crossover voting. I think you had some registered Republicans that crossed over to support Dr. Carmona for various reasons,” Quinlan said.

In addition to voting history, the campaign relied extensively on demographic data from the U.S. Census to determine which voters to focus on.

Possibly the biggest factor was that it was a presidential election year. Even in states where neither presidential campaign puts many resources, such as Arizona, voter turnout is higher than midterm years.

One group the campaign reached out to heavily was registered Republicans and independents who vote in presidential years, but not in off-years or in Republican primaries.

Those voters, Tameron said, found Carmona’s background appealing.  She cited that as being a key to the closeness of Carmona’s race. From the moment Carmona launched his campaign in late 2011, politicos from both sides of the aisle marveled at a resume that included special forces service in Vietnam, a long history on the Pima County SWAT team and surgeon general under a Republican president.

“Competitive districts obviously do a lot. But some of the places we targeted, we knew we’d show up as a different kind of Democrat, we’d pique some peoples’ interest,” Tameron said. “There was a natural curiosity about the man.”

The upshot, Quinlan said, is that Arizona is becoming a more even playing field for statewide Democratic candidates.

“Their (Republican) candidates are not winning in these competitive areas, they’re not appealing to independents and they’re not appealing to Latinos,” Quinlan said. “It should be a warning flag to Republicans. We know which direction the electorate is moving.”

Some Republicans, however, say Carmona’s strength won’t carry over to a non-presidential year. GOP consultant Sean Noble, who worked as an adviser to the Flake campaign, said Carmona won’t see the same kind of support if he’s the Democratic nominee for governor in 2014.

Noble said Carmona over-performed against voter registration in nearly every area of the state, both in Republican and Democratic areas, and probably got a fair share of crossover support. But he said Carmona benefited from a combination of presidential year turnout, a strong biography and an influx of money from Democrats who saw an opportunity.

Carmona followed Obama’s campaign model of maximizing his base while reaching out in traditionally Republican areas for crossover votes, Noble said, but it won’t work the same in 2014. Noble said the presidential election was the difference between Flake winning by 3 percentage points and him winning by nearly double digits.

“Let’s put it this way — I hope he (Carmona) believes that he can replicate his performance in 2012 in 2014. … The presidential election lifted Carmona’s boat. And there isn’t going to be a lift for him in 2014,” said Noble, president of the political consulting firm DC London. “He’s going to be in for a pretty unpleasant surprise.”

Noble also noted that the Libertarian candidate won about 102,000 votes in the U.S. Senate race, and said the siphoning of conservative votes away from Flake contributed to the relatively low margin of victory. The Libertarian candidate for president attracted far fewer votes, getting only 32,000.

Tucson pollster Margaret Kenski, a Republican, echoed Noble’s thoughts on the Libertarian candidate. While Carmona was an ideal Democratic candidate who did very well among independent voters, Kenski said, some conservative Republicans are hostile to Flake due to his positions on illegal immigration and other issues, and cast their ballots for the Libertarian as a protest vote.

“I think the problem was really the split within the Republican Party, to some extent,” Kenski said. “In the really conservative areas, it seems to me that probably there was an underperformance for Flake. The Libertarian picks up those votes.”

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